Contributing Factors to Risk Emergence

In order to understand the concept of “contributing factors”, a useful metaphor may be that of a plant emerging from fertile ground. Just as there are a key set of factors that contribute to soil fertility and thus increase the probability that a plant will emerge if a seed is sown (factors such as nutrient and mineral content), so too are there a key set of factors that contribute to making “fertile ground” from which risks can emerge.

There may (or may not) be a single dominant seed that gives rise to the risk but there are often multiple contributing factors in the growth process and they can operate in two directions, either to amplify or to attenuate the likelihood and/or severity of the emerging risk and its consequences.

It is these contributing factors, their attributes and their relevance for risk anticipation, assessment and management that are the focus of IRGC’s report.