The aim of phase 1 of this project is to produce a report identifying and describing the contributing factors to risk emergence, so that risk professionals, by understanding and recognising these factors, may be better able to avoid or mitigate emerging risks in future.
An expert meeting was held on 16-17 December, 2009, to develop the basis for this IRGC report on emerging risks. To inform discussion at this workshop, selected experts each contributed their thoughts on the emergence of risk within their domains of specialisation:
Emerging infectious diseases;
Ecosystem services;
International financial markets;
Systemic risks in society and economics;
Large scale engineered systems;
Uncertainty and complex systems.
From this workshop came the concept of "contributing factors" to risk emergence. In order to understand this concept of contributing factors, a useful metaphor may be that of a plant emerging from fertile ground. Just as there are a key set of factors that contribute to soil fertility and thus increase the probability that a plant will emerge if a seed is sown (factors such as nutrient and mineral content, pH, soil structure, good drainage and micro-organism content), so too are there a key set of factors that contribute to making “fertile ground” from which risks can emerge. There may (or may not) be a single dominant seed that gives rise to the risk but there are often multiple contributing factors in the growth process and they can operate in two directions, either to amplify or to attenuate the likelihood and/or severity of the emerging risk and its consequences. It is these contributing factors, their attributes and their relevance for risk anticipation, assessment and management that will be the focus of IRGC’s forthcoming report.
Illustrations of selected emerging risks are also being developed to test the relevance and validity of the identified contributing factors. They include:
The obesity epidemic
Emerging food safety risks: melamine-tainted milk in China (2008)
Counterfeit prescription drugs
Emerging risks in megacities
Solar storms
Sea-level rise
To further develop and critique the "contributing factors" to risk emergence, IRGC held a Workshop on Emerging Risks in July 2010, in conjunction with a regular meeting of its Scientific and Technical Council (S&TC). Members of the S&TC, along with external experts, were invited to critique a draft report, validate (or question, as the case may be) the factors, and make suggestions for improvements.
This phase of the project will be completed with the publication of the above-described IRGC report in Autumn 2010.
The Emerging Risks project continues with phase 2.