Work on phase 1 of this project began at a roundtable hosted by the Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue in Rüschlikon/Zürich on 8 and 9 June, 2009. Approximately 30 participants from governments, industry, academia and international organisations contributed to discussions which have helped shape IRGC’s thinking on emerging risks and the direction of this project. Expert discussions at the workshop led to the identification of the following elements related to emerging risks:
Sources of risks
Natural sources
Human sources
Risk Drivers
Knowledge of emerging risks
System complexity
Social and cultural dynamics
Degree of development, poverty and inequality
Natural resources and the environment
Competing interests, ideologies, values and religions
Variability in susceptibility to risk
Governance issues
Tackling complexity
Governance of change and adapting institutions
Better agenda-setting
Resolving conflicts
A concept note on these issues can be found here. Its purpose is to provide an outline of the project work that IRGC is starting. This concept note elaborates on the above elements.
An expert meeting was held on 16-17 December, 2009, to develop the basis for an IRGC policy brief on emerging risks. To inform discussion at this workshop, selected experts have contributed on:
Emerging infectious diseases;
Causes of risks to ecosystem services;
What drives risks in international financial markets;
Systemic risks in society and economics;
Drivers of emerging risks related to large scale engineered systems;
Uncertainty and complex systems.
Illustrations of selected emerging risks are also being developed to test the relevance and validity of the identified risk sources, drivers and governance issues. They include:
The obesity epidemic
Emerging food safety risks: melamine-tainted milk in China (2008)
Counterfeit prescription drugs
Emerging risks in megacities
Solar storms
This phase of the project will conclude in spring 2010, with the publication of an IRGC policy brief on emerging risks.